• Retail Sales will be released on Tuesday. This report gives the markets some insight to how consumer spending is holding up.
• Also on Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will report on inflation at the consumer level. Last week’s Producer Price Index showed that inflation at the wholesale level has moderated, thanks to lower energy prices. Will CPI follow suit?
• Manufacturing from the New York Empire and Philadelphia Fed Index will also be released Tuesday and Thursday, respectively.
• Housing Starts and Building Permits data will be delivered on Wednesday.
• Last — but not least — will be the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims numbers on Thursday. Last week’s data was the lowest in a month.

In addition to those reports, European headlines will continue to dominate the news as the debt woes in that region plague the global economies. Also, the minutes from the Fed’s April meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will be released and this could move the markets.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further — a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates reached record best levels last week. I’ll be monitoring the markets closely this week to see what happens next.

 
photo credit: woodleywonderworks via photo pin cc

A slew of economic reports are set for release this week, and investors and traders will be watching the data closely for any signs of an economic slowdown: Right off the bat on Monday the Personal Income and Spending data will be released along with the closely watched Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) report. The Core PCE is the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation and comes after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last week that inflation in the short-term has been pressured higher by rising energy costs.     In the manufacturing sector, the Chicago PMI will be released on Monday with the national ISM Index delivered on Tuesday. On Wednesday, the ADP Employment Report will be released ahead of the government’s monthly Non-farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate on Friday. Initial Weekly Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday. The recent couple weeks of elevated Jobless Claims is disturbing…and if it continues, rest assured QE3 chatter will re-emerge. Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on. When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving — and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse. To go one step further — a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning. As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates continue to hover near record best levels. I’ll stay on top of this week’s news to monitor how Bonds and home loan rates are impacted. Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Apr 27, 2012)

To read the entire newsletter,  click: The Mortgage Market Guide 

The HELP EXPO was founded by Ermin Fergerstrom, Lisa Teichner, Wendy Hornak and Cheryl McCandliss. All Small Business owners themselves.  They felt that Maui really needed an event to promote small business and entrepreneurialism. The HELP EXPO was created to help strengthen our economy, unite our community and move forward towards a better financial future.

Featured speakers included Mayor Alan Arakawa, Jane Sawyer, Hawaii District Director for the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA), Pamela Tumpap, President of the Maui Chamber of Commerce, Ryther Barbin, Business Attorney, Wendy Hornack, Owner of Island Support and Ermin Fergerstrom, HELP Expo founder and business owner.

The founders said they hope to grow bigger and better each year, so we hope to see you there next year!

* We will be posting more photos from the HELP Expo on Hawaii’s Premiere Mortgage Company’s Facebook Page.

Last week in review:

Forecast for the Week

The calendar heats up this week with reports on sales, housing, jobless claims and manufacturing: Right off the bat, Retail Sales will be reported on Monday – and investors will be able to gauge how consumer spending is holding up. In manufacturing news, the Empire State Index out of New York and the Philadelphia Fed Index will be released on Monday and Thursday, respectively. Housing will be in the news this week with Housing Starts and Building Permits for March being reported on Tuesday. Those reports will be followed by the Existing Home Salesreport for March, which will be released on Thursday. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims report will be released on Thursday. The report released last week showed that jobless claims rose to their highest level since the week ending January 28. So the markets will be watching this week’s release! In addition to those reports, Corporate Earnings reports may influence the Stock markets – and as we know, the Bond markets usually move in the opposite direction. Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on. When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving – and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse. To go one step further – a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning. As you can see in the chart below, it’s been a wild, volatile few weeks in the markets. I’ll be monitoring all the news closely to see how the markets and home loan rates respond next. Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Apr 13, 2012)

Click on the link for the complete copy of the Mortage Market Guide

The markets will be open the entire week, despite the Easter and Passover holidays…and two reports stand out:

• The economic calendar is light this week, but investors will be closely watching the Producer Price Index on Thursday and the Consumer Price Index on Friday. Higher oil prices have fanned the flames for higher inflation in the short term says Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke…but in the longer term, it remains subdued.
• Initial Weekly Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday. Jobless claims fell to their lowest level in four years last week to 357,000.
• On Friday the first reading of April Consumer Sentiment will be released.
In addition to those reports, corporate earnings will be in the news this week. Earnings reports are closely watched by investors around the globe. If the tone is positive, there could be a shift back into the Stock markets from the Bond markets, which in turn could push home loan rates higher. On the flipside, if earnings come in below expectations, Stocks could fall while Bonds could rise, in turn pushing home loan rates lower.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.
When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving – and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further – a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart above, Bonds and home loan rates benefitted from the disappointing Jobs Report. I’ll be watching the news closely to see which way they move next.
Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Apr 06, 2012)

* This post is an except from the Mortgage Market Guide that Hawaii’s Premiere Mortgage Company sends out weekly.

• On Wednesday Existing Home Sales will be released, followed by the New Home Sales report on Friday. The reports come after last week’s positive Housing Starts data.
• Thursday brings the weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report, which has steadily declined this year to a more job-friendly level.
• On Friday, the Consumer Sentiment Report will be released.

In addition to those reports, a number of news stories may move the markets, including additional news out of Greece, the Treasury Department’s auction of $99 Billion worth of government securities, and movement in the Stock Market. All of those news stories have the potential to negatively impact the Bond Market, depending on how they develop.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond that home loan rates are based on.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving – and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further – a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes were on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, good economic news late last week reversed the improving trend Bonds and home loan rates experienced early in the week. I’ll continue to monitor this situation closely.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Feb 17, 2012)

 

The Mortgage Market Guide View…

Mileage Rates for 2012If you drive a car, truck or van for work, you’ll want to make sure you know the standard mileage rates that the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has set for 2012.These mileage rates are used to calculate deductible costs for driving an automobile for business, charitable, medical and moving purposes. So when it comes to filing your taxes this time next year, you’ll need to know these numbers!New for 2012As of January 1, 2012, the standard mileage rates are as follows: Businesses = 55.5 cents per mile driven Medical or moving = 23 cents per mile driven Charitable organizations = 14 cents per mile driven You’ll notice that the rate for business miles is unchanged from the mid-year adjustment that became effective on July 1, 2011. The medical and moving rate has been reduced by 0.5 cents per mile. Make Sure You Qualify Before you calculate your deduction, make sure you qualify. The IRS reminds taxpayers that they cannot use the business standard mileage rate for a vehicle after using any depreciation method under the Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System (MACRS) or after claiming a Section 179 deduction for that vehicle. In addition, the business standard mileage rate cannot be used for more than four vehicles used simultaneously. However, the IRS is accepting public comments on this policy. Additional Option Although the IRS provides the standard mileage rate for ease and convenience, you’re not required to use it. If you prefer, you can calculate the actual costs of using your vehicle instead of using the standard mileage rates. Remember, if you have questions or concerns, talk to a tax consultant or accountant to discuss your options and unique situation. Economic Calendar for the Week of February 20 – February 24 Date ET Economic Report For Estimate Actual Prior Impact Wed. February 22 10:00 Existing Home Sales Jan NA 4.71M Moderate Thu. February 23 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 2/18 NA NA Moderate Fri. February 24 10:00 Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM) Feb NA 72.5 Moderate Fri. February 24 10:00 New Home Sales Jan NA 307K Moderate

Have you heard of the word “phishing”?  This is not new. It’s  a troubling tactic which involves the practice of sending you an email to entice you to a website which appears to be the website of a well known company. The intent is to induce you to reveal personal information which can then be used to steal your identity.

So far, fake websites have been set up to mimic a number of famous banks and retailers.

The pitch of the email messages, which appear to be from a legitimate company, is that your checking account or credit card may have been the subject of fraudulent activity, and your social security number or credit card number is required to authenticate your true identity.  There has even been a threat that if you don’t comply, your account may be closed.  The FBI has called the practice “the hottest and most troubling new scam on the Internet.”

Another concern is that these cyber bandits are creating fake mortgage companies, complete with a website and the little “padlock” in the lower right corner of the browser to confirm you are using a secure connection.  In this case, it would be a secure connection to the criminals who are about to steal your information.

While you may think it can’t happen to you, there’s the chance a very sophisticated operation will buy television, radio or newspaper ads to promote the website as well as the toll free number, rather than using email marketing to generate traffic.  In this manner, the identity thieves would receive instant credibility, on the assumption your viewing of their advertisement via a reputable media outlet would automatically negate any suspicions you might harbor.

The final element of the campaign involves greed, which is an essential ingredient in most successful scams.  And in the mortgage business, where we have just experienced a significant rise in rates, the one and only “hook” which would be required would be advertisement of a rate one percent lower than that offered by legitimate mortgage originators.

The extreme danger of a successful mortgage identity theft ring is that it will serve as a “one stop shopping” vacuum cleaner of your personal information.

Unlike currently publicized scams, where the thief’s goal is to steal your social security number or your credit card number, the mortgage application accumulates everything at once.

The standard form used by most lenders across the country will begin asking for your birth date rather than your age, which will add even more information of high value to criminals.  A person’s birth date is often asked as a “challenge” question when you call customer service representatives to discuss an account.

Key information which you will freely give away if dealing with a fake mortgage company either on the phone or on the Internet will include your full name, address, phone number, social security number, previous addresses, number of children and ages, your occupation, the name of your employer, length of employment, business phone number, current salary, previous employer and previous salary, name of your co-borrower with all associated information, list of bank accounts and retirement accounts with account numbers and current balances, list of credit cards with account numbers and current balances, information about your current mortgage or landlord, the make and model and value of your automobiles, addresses of your other owned real estate and whether or not you are a U.S. citizen.  If the scam goes beyond a first conversation, you will also give away your signature and perhaps an application fee.  It will generally take you one month to figure out you’ve been scammed, by which time your entire identity plus your credit report may have been obtained.

So, you have a choice.  Either deal with local mortgage professionals who will handle your financing needs, or take a chance with somebody on the other end of an Internet or telephone connection, and watch what happens next.

If you are looking for a local and trusted mortgage provider, contact us, and we will be happy to assist you.

The first speaker was Dr. Elizabeth Kapu’uwailani Lindsey.  I love the way she told her stories, some from when she was a little girl, and some from when she was grown.  The food for thought I learned from her is the same one she learned from a Pacific island  when he said “You have watches, but you have no time”.  Isn’t this so true in our modern culture?  With our technology we have developed so many high tech gadgets to save us time, and yet one of the most often complain I hear around (which I am guilty of) is that “I just don’t have the time”. “We have watches…  but we have no time ….”.  With this we should also remember that “faster is not always better and more is not always enough”….

There is one more story she told that got me teary eyed.  That’s when she took her Tutu (might be Auntie Tutu) out for a celebration because she got this awesome new job.  Throughout their celebration her Tutu never asked about the job though she was aware that that is what the celebration is for. NO, she didn’t ask what company it was, no she didn’t care how much the pay would be, she only had one question and it moved me to tears.  Tutu asked “Baby girl … will this make your heart happy?”.  Oh what wisdom our kupunas have!

The next speaker was Dr. Arthur Medeiros. At first I was not sure where he is going with his talk.  Would it be a lot of the “don’t cut the trees, don’t destroy our forest kind of talk” I wondered.  But no, it was deeper than that.  It was passion combined with science, responsibility, hardwork, and community.  But more importantly it was about having a vision, and actually doing something about it, no matter how small in the beginning. It’s also about resiliency. Despite the thought that he had that he may never see the fruit of his labor, Dr. Medeiros did something in order for the future generation to be “saved”.  The watershed restoration project that he started and is now growing is fascinating.  The illustration of the before and after was astonishing. He thought he would not see the fruit of his labor, but he is seeing them now.   You can hear in his voice his excitement when he talks about the new native plant keikis sprouting, he speaks of them as if they were his own kids.  And in a way, they were ….

The next favorite speaker of mine is Byron Washom.   Actually, I almost missed his talk.  When I was looking at the brochure, I picked his session as probably one that I would skip.  I  thought he was going to talk about solar power, alternative energies, and all that.  Not that I am against solar power and alternative energy, it was just I have heard enough of it for now that I was not sure I would want to sit and listen about it again.  However, I decided to stay, and boy was I glad I stayed. It was a pleasure listening to him talk. He had a fascinating childhood – he grew up in Midway Atoll.  His life stories of creativity and not being hindered by boundaries inspired me. I love it when he said “encourage your children to go in the end of the bridge … (you would have to watch the video to find out the end of that quote because I can’t remember the exact word used and I don’t want to misquote him ).  Lastly, here’s what I will always remember from him.  It’s when he said  that “there is always a place for someone who is passionate”, and,  “if you follow your passion, you will always be welcome wherever you go.”.

Hmm… is getting longer and I am not even halfway done. I think I will stop here for now and will do a part 2 tomorrow.  So this post is the “morning session” post, Stay tuned for the afternoon session post.

- Liza

Photo Credit: All photos used here are taken by Peter Liu Photography and posted at his Kaiscapes Flckr page.  used with permission.